There's quite a bit of frustration among fans with what's been a relatively quiet offseason for the Phillies thus far. But it's important to keep things in perspective.
Would it be a disappointing development if the Phillies return largely the same team for the third consecutive season after going 33-33 in the second half of the regular season and losing in four games to the New York Mets in the NLDS? Absolutely. But would the Phillies still be a playoff team in 2025 if the season started today and this was the roster they entered the season with? Almost certainly. Heck, they might still win the NL East.
KYLE SCHWARBER LEADOFF TANK 😳 pic.twitter.com/yJdMJsDINQ
It does feel like there's a need for some lineup shake-up, as the Phillies have proven to be too reliant on hitting home runs in each of the last two postseasons. But if you go into the season with a lineup led by Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber, you would still have a chance to have a really strong offense that helps you win 90+ games. The Phillies have about as good of a starting rotation quartet as there is in baseball with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. As things stand now, the Phillies would be subtracting Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez from the bullpen, while adding Jordan Romano. That feels underwhelming, especially considering elbow issues limited Romano to just 15 games last year. But the bullpen is hardly barren, with Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering and José Alvarado among the other options under contract.
The division-rival Mets have certainly had a better offseason than the Phillies thus far by virtue of signing Juan Soto to a 15-year/$765 million contract. But Pete Alonso remains a free agent. As does Sean Manaea. Luis Severino departed for a lucrative contract with the Athletics. You can definitely see some upside with their starters, but there's almost no certainty in a rotation that currently features Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Paul Blackburn. Two-time All-Star closer Edwin Díaz missed all of 2023, and then had a mixed bag of a season in 2024, posting a 3.52 ERA over 54 appearances.
Meanwhile, the Braves had to settle for a Wild Card spot in 2024 after having won the six previous NL East titles. That's in large part because Brian Snitker's squad was ravished by injuries. Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his right ACL in May, and may not be ready for Opening Day. Having torn the ACL in each knee now, it's unclear how explosive the former NL MVP will be when he returns. Spencer Strider — who already had a Tommy John surgery on his resume – underwent a season-ending internal brace procedure in April, and it's hard to know what to expect from him in 2025. Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Ozzie Albies all come with significant injury risk at this point. The projected starting corner outfielders for the Braves right now are Bryan De La Cruz and Jarred Kelenic. This isn't to discount the ceiling of the Braves, which is very high when you also factor in Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Raisel Iglesias. But just because you're frustrated with where the Phillies are at right now doesn't mean you should overlook the very real holes on their two biggest division rivals right now.
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— Tim Kelly (@timkellysports.bsky.social) December 10, 2024 at 3:44 PM
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Of course, both the Mets and Braves will have the opportunity to add more before the season begins. But so will the Phillies. The Mets may bring back Alonso. The Braves could add another outfielder and reliever. The Phillies could add a left fielder and/or another bullpen arm. Alec Bohm may be traded, meaning third base will look different than it did in 2024. None of these teams are finished products right now.
There's also the possibility for internal improvements from the Phillies in 2025. Trea Turner could very well have a more even offensive season. Bryson Stott and Alvarado could bounce back after disappointing 2024 seasons. J.T. Realmuto could be more effective with a lessened workload. No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter is going to debut at some point in 2025, and will be one of the favorites for the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
As things stand right now, the Phillies definitely have the best starting rotation in the NL East. They have a lineup that could hit with the Mets and Braves. Their bullpen feels a piece or two short, but the same could be said for New York and Atlanta.
This isn't meant to carry water for the Phillies or tell you that you should have blind optimism. The Phillies absolutely still need to tweak their roster. It has been a disappointing offseason so far. But it's Dec. 18, and while flawed, the Phillies did enter the offseason with a pretty strong roster. That roster won the NL East in 2024, and could in 2025. Nuance needs to be had in this discussion.
Alec Bohm, Andrew Painter and more in this week’s Phillies Mailbag with @AntSanPhilly at @OnPattison https://t.co/Vi5XgCegC8
