The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service forecasters predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 miles-per-hour or higher. Of those, 8-13 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 4-7 major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher. Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, PhD said in a release. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
"Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today," FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks said. "Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow."
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to
La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer living Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear and minimize ocean cooling. Also, human-caused climate change is warming the ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge, predictors stated. The rise in sea level represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.
https://www.downbeach.com/2024/04/05/county-recommends-signing-up-for-emergency-notifications-ahead-of-hurricane-season/
