How much will it cost to sign Juan Soto? One prominent outlet has released their projection.
MLB Trade Rumors unveiled their annual top 50 free agent predictions, a countdown unsurprisingly topped by Soto. The contract prediction they arrived at for Soto was 13 years and $600 million.
Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year/$700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason, but $680 million of that is deferred from 2034-2043. The present-day value of Ohtani's contract is around $460 million over 10 years. He counts $46,081,476 against the luxury tax each season.
If Soto signs for 13 years and $600 million with no deferrals, that would give the Scott Boras client just under a $46.2 million average annual value. So he would be moving the ball forward in that area, but only barely.
Phillies Mailbag on @OnPattison with @AntSanPhilly: What Would a Juan Soto Contract Look Like? https://t.co/hkXfh2slwS
— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) October 29, 2024
The 13 years that Soto is projected to sign for is the same amount that his former teammate Bryce Harper got entering his age-26 season when he became a free agent and joined the Phillies. Giancarlo Stanton —Soto's teammate this past year with the New York Yankees — is in the home stretch of a 13-year/$325 million extension he signed originally with the Miami Marlins that began in the 2015 season. Soto would tie those two for the second-longest contract in MLB history.
However, Fernando Tatis Jr. would keep the crown with the longest contract ever, having signed a 14-year/$340 million deal to remain with the San Diego Padres, a pact that began in 2021. Granted, the first year of that contract was only Tatis' age-22 season. But he didn't have the resume that Soto does, and he also wasn't on the open market with multiple teams able to bid on his services.
At 26, Soto has all-but assured he'll one day be in the Hall of Fame, an incredible accomplishment considering what may be remembered as his peak years could still be ahead of him. He has enough leverage that if it's important for him to match the 14 years that Tatis got, he could probably do it. Heck, whose to say he couldn't get 15.
Of course, committing to anything for 14 or 15 years is pretty insane. You have no idea how you will feel that far down the road, and how your priorities may have shifted. Even for gargantuan sums of money, some players don't want to make that long of a commitment.
It also may be a moot point, because the guess here is that Soto will have an opt out at some point between five and seven years of the contract.
Scott Boras Really Seems To Want the Phillies at the Forefront of the Juan Soto Sweepstakes
From @TimKellySports ⬇️https://t.co/XYI8iBlw7N
Boras landed Alex Rodriguez a record-setting 10-year/$252 million contract with the Texas Rangers ahead of the 2001 season. It included an opt-out that he triggered after the 2007 season, which turned out to be his fourth campaign with the Yankees. Rodriguez, coming off an MVP season, ultimately got the Yankees to give him a new 10-year/$275 million deal ahead of his age-32 season.
Harper didn't take Boras' advice to include an opt-out in his deal, and it probably cost him quite a bit of money. You can bet Soto will be reminded of both A-Rod and Harper when Boras is giving him counsel.
As far as where Soto will land? The MLBTR staff was split between the two New York teams — Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco predicted the Yankees, while Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams went with the Mets.
Noticeably absent were the Phillies. That's not to say that the Phillies shouldn't make their pitch to Soto, but it doesn't feel especially likely he's going to be wearing red pinstripes next year. When Harper and Trea Turner were free agents — and really, well before that — they were frequently connected to the Phillies, and not just locally. That's not the case so far with Soto.
