After beating the Brewers in the first game of their best-of-three wild card series on Tuesday, the Mets were a prohibitive favorite to advance to an NLDS against the Phillies.
The Mets even found themselves with an eighth-inning lead in their second game in Milwaukee, six outs away from a trip to Philadelphia this weekend.
But everything changed when Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio crushed his second home run of the night and tied the game. The Brewers led 5-3 by the end of the inning, and the Metropolitans went down in order in the ninth.
The Brewers are now slightly favored (-130) to win Thursday night's series finale and face the Phillies. With that in mind, here's a look at how the Brewers/Phillies regular season series played out. (You can find this same exercise for Phillies/Mets here.)
- Phillies 3 - Brewers 1. A classic Zack Wheeler game. His line: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. If Wheeler can do that in game one of the NLDS, the Phils should be in great shape.
You may recall that Wheeler made exactly one mistake... to an old friend.
Rhys Hoskins has homered in his return to Philly! pic.twitter.com/TD3dnkhuhW
- Phillies 2 - Brewers 1. The Phillies hit the Brewers with Cristopher Sanchez the next night, and he almost matched Wheeler's performance: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K.
- Phillies 2 - Brewers 0. Aaron Nola outdid both of his rotation mates in the series finale: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K.
If the Phillies can hit the Brewers with the same 1-2-3 Wheeler-Sanchez-Nola punch in the NLDS, it would likely be a short series.
- Brewers 6 - Phillies 2. Brewers starter Aaron Civale outpitched Ranger Suarez in this one. Suarez allowed three runs in five innings, and Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks couldn't stop the bleeding.
Note that the Brewers held the Phillies to two runs for the third consecutive game between the two teams. The bats would need to do better in the NLDS.
- Phillies 5 - Brewers 1. The Phillies' offense finally looked respectable in their fifth game against Milwaukee, courtesy of longballs by Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper.
Up, up, and away!#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/GB01vI4oOY
Wheeler, once again, held the Brewers to just one run in seven innings. The Phillies would have to like their chances with Wheeler on the mound in game one of a Milwaukee/Philadelphia NLDS.
- Brewers 2 - Phillies 1. The Phils wasted seven great innings from Nola in this one, as the bats fell silent yet again. This is the type of game that gives Phillies fans nightmares. It's all too easy to imagine this scenario playing out again in a postseason matchup.
Based on this recent history, expect runs to be at a premium for both teams if they face off in the NLDS.
So will it be the Brewers or the Mets? By Friday morning we'll know. And we'll be just one day away from the start of another Red October in Philadelphia.
