The Phillies will begin their postseason slate Saturday when they welcome the NL East-rival New York Mets to Citizens Bank Park to begin the best-of-five NLDS.
In a rather surprising move, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza announced Friday that the Mets will go with Kodai Senga for Game 1. A year ago, Senga was one of the better pitchers in the NL. But the righty threw a total of 5 1/3 innings during the regular season, with injuries to his right shoulder and left calf essentially making it a lost campaign. So there were definitely some shocked faces when Mendoza revealed it will be Senga who the Mets have on the mound to open the NLDS.
Mendoza obviously wasn't in a hurry to reveal a pitch count for Senga. But given that this will be Senga's first start since July 26, it's fair to assume he's probably only going to go an inning or two. With that, the best strategy for Rob Thomson is probably just to put his best lineup out, knowing that the Phillies will face a righty to begin the game, but will likely see a slew of different pitchers throughout the course of the evening.
With all that acknowledged, here's On Pattison's best guess at what the Game 1 lineup will look like for the Phillies.
1. Kyle Schwarber, DH
- Schwarber set a new MLB record with 14 leadoff home runs this season. For all the bellyaching about him as a leadoff hitter, the Phillies sure have won a lot of games with him at the top of the order. Schwarber actually hit .300 against lefties, as opposed to .218 against righties this season. He'll lead off and DH in every postseason game.
2. Trea Turner, SS
- While he did go cold in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS, Turner hit .347 in 13 postseason games a year ago. Turner homered three times last postseason, and has six total playoff home runs in his career.
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
- Like Schwarber, Harper posted a higher batting average (.301) and OPS (.907) against lefties this season. He looked pretty impressive during his on-field batting practice in Friday's workout day, for what it's worth.
4. Nick Castellanos, RF
- Castellanos became the first player in MLB history to have consecutive multi-home run games in the postseason in last year's NLDS against the Braves. However, he went ice cold in the NLCS, going 1-for-24 with 11 strikeouts. It's unclear if he'll hit fourth or fifth in the postseason, although Castellanos explained that he feels more comfortable hitting in the middle of the order because it fits his offensive approach better.
5. Alec Bohm, 3B
- Whether he hits fourth or fifth, the Phillies will count on Bohm to be one of their top run producers this postseason. The first-time All-Star hit .301 with 80 RBIs with runners in scoring position during the regular season. Bohm did homer in Game 7 of the NLCS a year ago, but he struggled overall in the postseason, hitting only .239 in 46 at-bats.
6. Bryson Stott, 2B
- Stott disappointed at the plate this year, but has a chance to turn the page in the postseason. His playoff resume over two years is something of a mixed bag, as he's driven in 12 runs, but hit just .189. Edmundo Sosa will be a candidate to get some at-bats against tough lefties at second base throughout the postseason.
7. J.T. Realmuto, C
- Realmuto posted a .788 OPS after the All-Star Break, quite the improvement from .720 before it. Realmuto has six home runs and 18 RBIs in 30 career postseason games with the Phillies.
8. Brandon Marsh, CF
- Marsh posted a .792 OPS against right-handed pitchers, as opposed to .552 against left-handed pitchers. He'll definitely be in the starting lineup against right-handed pitchers, whether it's in left or center field. It's less clear if he'll start against southpaws.
9. Austin Hays, LF
- While the Phillies feel particularly confident about him against lefties, Thomson indicated earlier this week that Hays could play every day in the postseason. Just because he starts Game 1 against a righty doesn't mean he'll start against all righties this October, but he's likely to get the first crack.
