If it wasn't apparent after the Phillies collapsed in the 2023 NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks, it now is after the 2024 iteration of the club was knocked out in the NLDS by the New York Mets — the lineup is too reliant on home runs, and when those aren't coming, this is a team far more likely to swing and miss at pitches out of the zone than to put the ball in play.
Obviously, Bryce Harper isn't going anywhere, nor should he. Ditto for Kyle Schwarber, who is going to strike out 200 times a year, but make up for it by hitting 40 home runs and drawing 100 walks. Whether Trea Turner stays at shortstop or not, he's got nine seasons left on an 11-year/$300 million contract, so he's going to be in the lineup. He, like Nick Castellanos, can carry a team when he's hot, but does quite a bit of chasing of pitches outside the zone when he's not. Short of the Phillies eating some of the $40 million remaining on the final two years of Castellanos' contract to facilitate a trade, he's not going anywhere. Expect J.T. Realmuto to be back at catcher for at least one more season as well, as he enters the final year of a five-year/$115.5 million deal.
Having those five locked into your lineup is hardly a death sentence. Harper and Turner were All-Stars this past season. Schwarber's third season with the Phillies was his most complete. Castellanos has flaws, but just played all 166 Phillies games this season and was the team's best hitter in the NLDS. Realmuto may no longer be the best catcher in baseball, but he's still in the top half of the league. There's not a former star like Javier Báez here that has fallen off a cliff to the point where they are unplayable.
At the same time, it's now clear that with those five entrenched in your lineup, the secondary pieces on the team need to be players who put the ball in play on a more consistent basis, helping to tide you over when the top half of the lineup isn't hitting the ball out of the park. That leaves you to wonder what the future of Brandon Marsh in red pinstripes is.
Though they both have flaws, you can make the case that Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott can do what the Phillies need from their secondary players. It's harder to do that with Marsh.
Perhaps Bohm will never top the start to the season that he had in 2024, but he's driven in 97 runs in each of the past two seasons. He doubled 44 times this season. He's found a way to be an effective MLB hitter without hitting home runs at the clip that some thought he would when he entered the league. Being able to control his emotions when things aren't going his way is the biggest question for Bohm.
Alec Bohm on if he’s at a crossroads: “No, I know where I’ll be next year.” @OnPattison @PhilliesNation pic.twitter.com/MzCAMAf9a8
There's no doubt that Stott had a disappointing 2024 season, hitting .245 with a .671 OPS. That was a far cry from the player who seemed to only be scratching the surface when he hit .280 with a .747 OPS in 2023, and was capable of fouling pitches off with the best of them. Stott certainly isn't cemented into the future plans for the Phillies, particularly if the Phillies decide to move Turner — who has -26 defensive runs saved in two seasons with the Phillies — from shortstop to second base. But the best version of Stott at the plate kind of fits what the Phillies need from the bottom of their order — someone who will see pitches, put the ball in play and be a threat to steal bases when he gets on.
At this stage, Marsh is probably a platoon player, someone who is best suited to be in the lineup against right-handed pitching, and not when lefties are on the mound. Perhaps that will change, but he hit .192 with a .552 OPS and 33 strikeouts in 90 plate appearances against lefties this past season.
That's not the end of the world, particularly considering that there's way more right-handed starting pitchers than lefties. The biggest issue is the swing-and-miss tendencies from Marsh. Marsh struck out 154 times this past season, an alarming amount considering he had way less plate appearances than those around him on the strikeout leaderboard for the Phillies.
Schwarber: 197 strikeouts in 692 plate appearances
Marsh: 154 strikeouts in 476 plate appearances
Castellanos: 139 strikeouts in 659 plate appearances
Harper: 138 strikeouts in 631 plate appearances
Not surprisingly, Marsh's 32.4% strikeout percentage was the highest on the Phillies. Schwarber did strikeout 197 times, but he did it in 216 more plate appearances than Marsh had. Marsh didn't quite have enough at-bats to be a qualified hitter, but among qualified hitters, the only player in baseball with a higher strikeout percentage than Marsh was Zack Gelof of the Oakland Athletics at 34.4%.
Marsh did walk 50 times, while also homering 16 times and driving in 60 runs. It's certainly not all negative for Marsh at the plate.
There's other areas where Marsh's impact is felt outside the batter's box. The seven defensive runs saved that he posted in left field were second among all NL left fielders, just one behind the eight that Ian Happ of the Chicago Cubs finished with. He's also capable of playing in center field, even if he's probably best suited for a corner outfield spot.
Additionally, Marsh is one of the most positive people you will ever interact with, and his addition in August of 2022 proved invaluable for a Phillies team that reached the World Series. He's had a strong impact on Bohm and Johan Rojas, among others. There's been lots of talk about "vibes" when things have been going well for the Phillies the last few years, and he's been at the forefront of that. Regardless of whether he's been the one making the play or is on the bench watching someone who essentially is taking playing time away from him helping to win the game, Marsh is legitimately happy to see the team succeed. He's a great teammate.
But as the Phillies try to pick up the pieces after losing in the NLDS to the Mets, they may realize that they need those around their stars in the lineup to make more contact than Marsh does. With three years of arbitration before free agency, it wouldn't be an easy decision to move on from Marsh via trade this offseason. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might need to consider it, though.
