Whether you're a fan of Kyle Schwarber leading off or not, it's impossible to argue that the four-year/$79 million deal that he signed to join the Phillies prior to the 2022 season hasn't been a massive success.
Since joining the Phillies, Schwarber's 131 home runs trail only Aaron Judge (157) and Shohei Ohtani (132). His 318 walks are third to Juan Soto (396) and Judge (332). Schwarber has 12 postseason home runs as a Phillie, a staggering amount over 34 October games. And while Bryce Harper is the face of the team and leads by example, Schwarber is as much of a clubhouse leader as anyone.
Phillies Mailbag with @AntSanPhilly: Will Kyle Schwarber Lead Off in 2025? - @OnPattison https://t.co/zjxW1WB7r3
Schwarber isn't a perfect player, as his 612 strikeouts in three seasons with the Phillies are the most in baseball over that period. He's also pretty much just a DH now, as he played just 41 innings in left field a year ago.
Still, for as long as Schwarber has been around, he'll only turn 32 in March. He came in slimmer a year ago, and increased his batting average to .248, a massive jump from the .207 he hit his first two seasons with the Phillies. Schwarber did that while still managing to club 38 home runs, drive in 104 runs and walk an NL-best 106 times.
The point being, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Phillies won't want Schwarber back in 2026. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was asked about the possibility of extending Schwarber this offseason during his season-ending press conference back in October.
"Well, we like Kyle Schwarber a lot," Dombrowski said. " ... But we haven't gotten into any offseason projections on who we are going to sign or not sign at this point."
He was asked a similar question about Zack Wheeler in his year-end press conference the prior season. Wheeler and the Phillies eventually reached a three-year/$126 million extension before what would have been the final year of his deal began.
“Without getting into anything — because just we haven’t had these type of things [conversations] — we would hope to have Zack Wheeler in our organization for years to come,” Dombrowski said at his year-end press conference Thursday.
“He’s been tremendous since he’s been here, and we look at him as a real stalwart of our organization,” Dombrowski continued. “So we would hope that he would be here for a long time.”
The answer on Schwarber wasn't as matter-of-fact, although that definitely doesn't mean the Phillies don't value the slugger. What it's probably more indicative of is that Wheeler is one of the five best pitchers in baseball, and you don't even let those type of players sniff the open market. For as excellent as Schwarber has been as a Phillie, it's much easier to replace a DH than a front-line starting pitcher.
Well hello there Schwarbs!#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/YHoUWeP7yE
With that said, one would still think the Phillies will want to retain Schwarber after 2025. It's just a matter of whether they and/or he would want to make that commitment before seeing his contract year play out.
From the perspective of the Phillies, they may like to be sure that Schwarber continues to age well physically. Schwarber was in better shape and held up as the DH in 2024 much better than as the primary left fielder in 2023, a season where he was still productive, but if you saw him walking when he wasn't on the field, his right knee was clearly bothering him.
Beyond how Schwarber holds up, the Phillies might want to see how others on their roster — namely Bryce Harper — are aging. If Schwarber is here, he's going to be entrenched as the DH. That's fine if Harper and Nick Castellanos are able to play 130+ games in the field. If either hits a wall physically in 2025, you may not want to have one player penciled in as your DH for 155 games a season.
From Schwarber's perspective, he may also want to play out his contract year, thinking that he'll be able to maximize his next deal by testing the open market, even if he eventually returns to the Phillies.
Still, if the price is right, the Phillies might be wise to take care of Schwarber at some point during Spring Training, as they did with Wheeler last year.
Phillies Nation's Destiny Lugardo recently pointed out that the two-year/$37 million deal that Joc Pederson just signed with the Texas Rangers — a pact that includes a player opt out after 2025 — should be the baseline for a new Schwarber deal. If he reaches free agency, it certainly will be.
From the perspective of the Phillies, though, they probably aren't going to bid against themselves right now and offer him an opt out with no other teams at the table. But while Pederson is coming off of a tremendous season with the Arizona Diamondbacks and does also have a reputation for winning wherever he goes, he's someone who needs to be protected against left-handed pitchers. Schwarber hit .300 against lefties a season ago. He's also about a year younger than Pederson.
Phillies Nuggets With @TimKellySports : Opening Day Lineup Projection 1.0https://t.co/0VJLD1r18b
So what would a fair extension offer from the Phillies look like? Something like two years and $47 million seems right. It is quite a bit more dollars wise than Pederson, but it doesn't guarantee him any additional years, doesn't have an opt-out and it could be enough to get him to forego free agency next offseason. Even on an aging team, there's a good chance Schwarber has a few more very productive seasons in him.
It may be that the Phillies want to leave themselves flexibility next offseason to shake their lineup up, something they didn't really have a ton of this winter. Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto will each be free agents after 2025, and will clear almost $43 million worth of luxury tax salaries. With that, the Phillies could sign another outfielder and shift Castellanos to DH for the final year of his deal. They could also go without a full-time DH, leaving it open for Castellanos, Harper, Trea Turner and others to get off their feet some days.
But between being the defacto captain and hitting home runs at a prolific pace, Schwarber has been a great Phillie for three years. Good look turning over another stone next offseason and finding a superior replacement.
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