Sometimes, when things happen in the world of Philadelphia sports, my phone blows up.
It's the nature of the beast, I guess. When you work in sports media, everyone wants immediate answers, Everyone wants your opinion. Everyone wants their feelings to be justified, or someone to talk them off the fan ledge.
My mother is one of those incessant texters. Here is a woman who paid zero attention to sports my entire life until she retired a few years ago, and now she has opinions and commentary on every everything.
But her texts used to be solely about baseball. That changed a couple weeks ago.
And Thursday night was a culmination, of sorts. Because she wasn't alone.
For the first time, since I can remember (definitely the first time in my personal smart phone era, which dates back 13 years), I had to turn the text notification sound on my phone off during the third period of a Flyers game. The outcome for the game was certain - they were going to lose to the Detroit Red Wings, it was just a matter of ticking down to the final, 6-3 score.
But the hand-wringing that was the common thread through the dozens of messages brought on by the angst formed from them losing a hockey game, was palpable.
So much so that I found myself cutting and pasting the same response to multiple people so I didn't have to say the same thing over and over and over again.
Was it annoying? Sure. But there were times where I caught myself smiling a little bit and that's because it was repeatedly dawning on me: The Flyers matter to people again.
For so long, this famous Philadelphia anxiety about their sports teams has been dormant about the hockey team. And now, all of the sudden, with them making an unexpected playoff push out of the blue, the sports emotions have been stirred for the orange and black.
You likely have to go back to the spring of 2012 where people cared this much.
Yeah, people were invested during the playoff bubble during the pandemic in 2020, but we all knew it wasn't the same. It didn't feel real or right or anything. The league, like the rest of us, was just making the best out of a crappy situation.
But here's were all the texting perplexed me — people were downright upset at the loss to Detroit.
This is as bad of a result as you could’ve had.
I get an initial visceral reaction. Almost everyone wants the team to make the playoffs now. Even converts like my Snow the Goalie co-host Russ Joy and WIP hockey yapper Hunter Brody, who went from calling for heads to roll to waiving pom-poms seemingly overnight. So losing a game that could have gotten you one step closer to securing that elusive playoff berth certainly stings.
But it's the fatalistic responses thereafter that left me furrowing my brow.
The one that especially got me was from my other co-host Chris Therien who called the loss the most important game of the year because it dropped their playoff chances to below 50%.
And here's where I put my foot down, and I'll say two things about it.
One, people have to stop relying so heavily on these percentages. It's just some mathematical formula based on computer simulations and has zero ability to identify the human condition.
At the trade deadline, the Flyers chances of making the playoffs were 3.9% in some places. And yet, here we are, with three games to go in the season, and they are sitting in a playoff spot, and just need to hold on to it.
So, ultimately, what good was that 3.9% valuation? Sure, they still might miss, and the 96.1% chance that they will miss the playoffs would still be right, but you can drive yourself crazy looking at percentages like that. Ignore simulated or expected results. If they were so accurate, you'd be taking the money of all the sports books. Instead, they're taking yours.
INSTANT REACTION: Flyers go down 6-3 in Detroit!!@SportsRadioWIP #Flyers #LetsGoFlyers pic.twitter.com/R60lZOcUxH
But if you want to be a slave to these percentages, I can't stop you, but I'll at least meet you halfway.
Yes, the Flyers odds of making the playoffs, according to Moneypuck currently sit at 44.5%. And while that is, in fact, less than 50%, and if simply viewed through that lens may seem a bit ominous, consider the percentages of the teams they are battling for third place in the Metropolitan Division.
The New York Islanders are 37.4%. The Columbus Blue Jackets are 14.2%. The Washington Capitals are 7.2%
So the Flyers have the best odds of the four.
And as we've learned in some political elections, a majority isn't needed, just a plurality. And right now, if this was an election, the Flyers would win it based on these percentages.
But yes, there is work to do.
The Flyers magic number (in points) to eliminate the competition is four for the Caps, five for Columbus and six for the Isles. That means any combination of points earned by the Flyers or lost by those teams that adds up to those totals would get them in.
But keep in mind all three need to happen. In other words, the Flyers can get to the magic number of six against the Islanders, while not getting to the magic number of five against Columbus.
It's confusing, I know. It's why magic numbers shouldn't be a thing in hockey because of the point system. Magic numbers work in other sports because it's purely based on wins and losses. Loser points screw up the works.
As for what lies ahead, the schedules for all four teams are equally challenging on the surface, but there's some nuance to looking at them as well.
The Flyers have their final road game in Winnipeg on Saturday and then host Carolina and Montreal on back-to-back days Monday and Tuesday.
That was another text I got — this is a brutal schedule.
The NHL is giving Flyers Fans a mental health break. There will be no NHL games played Friday night. That should give everyone a chance to stop googling "Metro Standings" and "East Coast Wild Card Race" until Saturday afternoon.#LetsGoFlyers pic.twitter.com/vMg59S1WGM
And it could be. Winnipeg has somehow gotten themselves back in the playoff conversation (12.6% for you odds nerds) out West after a miserable first half of the season and Carolina and Montreal are still battling for important positioning in the post season, including home ice advantage.
But those games against Carolina and Montreal may also mean little or absolutely nothing to those teams by the time those games roll around, so getting ahead of yourself on that is unadvisable.
As cliche as it sounds, you do need to go one day at a time and reassess after each day.
The teams the Flyers are fighting also have equally challenging schedules.
The Islanders play Ottawa, Carolina and Montreal, albeit all three at home.
Columbus has a game in Montreal before finishing with Boston and Washington at home — and that Washington game could be the final game in the career of Alex Ovechkin, so it could be emotional.
And speaking of the Caps, they have a home-and-home with Pittsburgh before that last game in Columbus. Also, since Washington and the Blue Jackets play each other, at least one of them won't be getting two points in that game, so that slightly helps the Flyers.
And finally, the thing that is most important out of all of this nervousness and anxiety, is the Flyers will go into the final four days of their season sitting in a playoff spot.
They still control their own destiny. Win each day, and they are still there, no matter what anyone else does. That means each one of these games could be important, and the level of importance gets greater with each passing day.
Which is also why the loss Thursday wasn't the biggest game of the season. Because Saturday is going to be more important, and possibly Monday and Tuesday as well.
We won't know until we get there.
So, feel free to keep texting me, but know you aren't going to get the answer you want until there is something far more definitive.
